By Kuek Ser Kuang Keng
ANALYSIS The surprising news that Johor caretaker Menteri Besar Abdul Ghani Othman could be fielded in Gelang Patah to square off with DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang, has put DAP’s campaign team on red alert as the former might ‘sweep up’ crucial Malay votes in that parliamentary constituency.
Given that there are 52 and 12 percent of Chinese and Indian voters respectively in the semi-urban constituency, DAP was initially confident that garnering a majority of these non-Malay votes and slightly less than half of the 34 percent of Malays’ should easily tide Lim over.
However, it is expected that Ghani could slash the DAP’s Malay support to the minimum as Nusa Jaya, one of the two state seats under Gelang Patah, contains a high number of civil servants, housing the state administrative centre of Kota Iskandar.
Ghani is seen by many Chinese Johoreans as a moderate and humble Umno leader, and the recent property boom in Iskandar – which is also located in the Gelang Patah constituency – has won him some applause.
Should the four-term menteri besar secure 85 percent of the Malay votes in Gelang Patah, DAP would have to rake in 80 percent of Chinese votes and 40 percent of the Indians’ to defeat Ghani with the thin majority of 1.5 percent.
Since the announcement of Lim’s candidature on March 18, Johor DAP’s morale has been high, attracting large crowd during statewide ceramahs.
Lightweight losing out
On the other hand, MCA – the party traditionally tasked to defend the seat and its designated Gelang Patah candidate Jason Teoh – has been on the defensive since failing to contain Lim’s growing momentum in the southern state.
Some believed that Johor BN needed a heavyweight to keep Lim busy in Gelang Patah, and that Ghani (left) provides the perfect choice.
Fielding the 66-year-old incumbent Serom assemblyperson in Gelang Patah, could effectively ‘paralyse’ Lim and reduce the potential statewide political tsunami into a localised storm, leaving the latter with no choice, but to focus his campaign in the constituency to secure his own seat.
According to today’s front-page report of English daily The Star, Ghani was said to have informed Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak that he did not mind offering himself as the Gelang Patah candidate.
The report also quoted several Johor Umno leaders – Deputy Education Minister Puad Zarkashi, Johor Baru MP Shahrir Samad and Nusa Jaya assemblyperson Aziz Sapian – as backing Ghani in taking the radical step.
The strong support from his comrades, however, may not be good news for Ghani.
To those who follow Johor politics closely, the tussle for the top job in the state has been brewing over the past few years.
Jostling for top office
Despite falling out of favour with former premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in the 2008 general election, Ghani managed to hang on to his menteri besar’s post apparently due to the late Johor Sultan Iskandar Ismail’s intervention.
Nevertheless, the current ruler Sultan Ibrahim Ismail who ascended to the throne in 2010, was said to support Higher Education Minister Mohamed Khaled Nordin in taking over the state leadership after the ruler attended the latter’s Hari Raya open house in 2011.
According to Sin Chew Daily, the sultan again appeared at Khaled’s Hari Raya open house last year – a significant sign as it was the only open house he attended.
Khaled also has the backing of his former boss Shahrir, who is a popular figure in Johor Baru.
Khaled (right) was Shahrir’s political secretary from 1983 to 1987 when the latter was the federal territories minister.
Puad is known to be a supporter of deputy BN chairperson Muhyiddin Yassin, who is also a Johor MP.
Another possible candidate to succeed Ghani is state exco member Ahmad Zahri Jamil, the number two in the Johor state government, who is also a staunch supporter of Muhyiddin.
Hence, nudging Ghani to Gelang Patah could be one of the strategies of his political rivals within the party to end his three-decade long political career.
Even if he contests at both parliamentary and state levels and manages to retain his Serom state seat, his defeat in Gelang Patah would trash his chances of continuing as menteri besar.
In Gelang Patah, the stakes are high and sharp for both political giants.
MoCS 